In its campaign against every achievement of the Kurds, Turkish colonialism has improved its relations with Iraq and is now also seeking meetings with Syria. The Kurds are the subject of negotiations with both Iraq and Syria. While Turkey was able to win over Iraq and the collaborators of the KDP for its military operation in Başur, it is also trying to win over the Syrian state in the fight against the democratic self-administration of northern and eastern Syria. The guerrillas, who have been waging an armed struggle against Turkey for 40 years, are now to be caught in the crossfire with the help of Iraq, the KDP and Syria. The seriousness of these efforts can currently be observed in Başurê Kurdistan, where Turkey has already set up several checkpoints and deployed heavy artillery following previous bombardments. According to the local NGO Community Peacemaker Teams (CPT), over 600 Kurdish and Christian villages are at acute risk of displacement.
The Turkish President. Erdogan, repeatedly mentions that Assad only has to take one step towards him for Turkey to take several steps towards him. The Syrian refugees, who for years served as a means of exerting pressure on the EU and were presented internally as a scapegoat for the disastrous economy, have become a problem for Erdogan. Turkey’s longstanding hatred of refugees has led to pogroms in recent weeks. This fueled anger of the population against the refugees is now also directed against the policies of Erdogan, who has staged himself as a friend of the refugees for years. He will try to send some of the refugees back to Syria and the groundwork must be laid for this. The most important basis for negotiations – from a Turkish perspective – will be the Democratic Autonomous Administration of Northern and Eastern Syria. The liquidation of the grassroots democratic system is Turkey’s top priority. In Başur, he has found a partner in the collaborating KDP that proactively supports him. The KDP’s counterpart for Rojava would be the Syrian state. Without additional support, Turkey will have considerable problems defeating the experienced and flexible guerrilla fighters.
Assad seems to be very unimpressed so far. The assumption, which is often fueled, that Syria is under no pressure to get closer to Turkey runs counter to reality. Turkey has up to 100,000 Islamist mercenaries in Syria who are just waiting to attack other parts of Syria. Even if Syria reaches an agreement with Turkey, these militias would very likely have to be fought militarily, as they will be on their own once Turkey is gone. After Erdogan’s conciliatory statements, these groups have started burning Turkish flags and attacking drivers entering and leaving the country with Turkish license plates – also in response to the pogroms inside Turkey. The mercenaries will by no means engage in diplomatic meetings and try to maintain their positions of power. Even though the civil war is now largely frozen, it remains unresolved, with the country’s economic problems in particular causing unease among the population. The fact that the temporary attacks between Lebanon’s Hezbollah and Israel are in danger of taking the form of a larger war means that Syria (and ultimately Turkey, which operates as an occupying power in Syria) is about to be drawn into the next war. This would be fatal in view of the points already mentioned. The upcoming presidential elections in the USA could also be dangerous, because if Trump wins, which seems very likely, it is possible that the USA will withdraw its soldiers from northern Syria to focus on its direct competitor, the People’s Republic of China, and Turkey could annex further cities in Syria. History shows us that when Turkey enters foreign territory militarily, it does not leave again – as we saw in Iraq, Cyprus and most recently in Libya. The only thing that could satisfy Syria would be treaties with Turkey that are certified byRussia and Iran. But Turkey wants to assert its interests with bilateral treaties, without Russia and Iran as contractual partners, which would have consequences in the event of non-compliance.
Russia and Iraq the mediators
Russia and Iraq are the main supporters of the start of bilateral talks between Turkey and Syria. The background to this support is that it would relieve both Russia and Iraq if relations between Turkey and Syria were to normalize. Russia has an interest in its strategic partner, Syria, achieving greater stability. In addition to its economic and political influence on the Syrian state, military cooperation also plays an important role here. The Russian naval base in Tartus, in western Syria, is Russia’s only base to the Mediterranean and is therefore of great strategic importance. From a Russian perspective, it is therefore important that the question of power within Syria is clarified – Turkey has annexed up to 10% of the Syrian state, partly with its own military, partly through its Islamist mercenary gangs. In the north and east of the country, there is democratic self-government, which is a thorn in the side of the centralist state. The war in Ukraine is also playing its part in Russia inviting Turkey and Syria to talks. This would allow Russia to focus on its own war.
Russia already acted as a mediator in the 2020 negotiations between Turkey and Syria.These negotiations collapsed unceremoniously when 5 Turkish soldiers were killed by a Syrian attack in Saraqib.
From the Iraqi point of view, the fact is that since the joint Silk Road project, mach has completely fallen in line with Turkey. After Erdogan’s visit in April, the Iraqi state – without a parliamentary election (!) – declared the PKK a banned party and gave Turkey the green light for the war against the Kurdish guerrillas in the Medya defense areas. Iraq hopes that the trade route will provide a way out of its economic misery and is willing to have Erdogan and Assad flown to Baghdad to start the talks. Both the trade route and other water projects between the two states are essential for Iraq and it is therefore working towards Turkey.
Mention must also be made of the betrayal of the KDP, which reads the Turkish state’s every wish from its lips and provides Turkey with considerable assistance in the transportation of heavy artillery and the establishment of military bases. History will not forget this betrayal bythe KDP!
The situation of self-administration
Due to Turkey’s imminent invasion of Başurê Kurdistan, it can be predicted that the Rojava Revolution will not be the target of a ground offensive for the time being (!). But if the Kurdish question becomes the main issue of the colonialists, it can be assumed that sooner or later they will agree to maintain the status quo of colonization. Therefore, preparations for resistance must be started as soon as possible in order not to be overrun in the event of a possible agreement between Turkey and Syria. The revolution must once again (!) form a unity around itself, which, as in the resistance against IS, will stand united behind the revolution when the war starts. The determination and sacrifice of people like Ivana Hoffmann and Arîn Mirkan show that victory can only be achieved in this way. This is the only way that self-government can defend itself – against both, the colonialists and the imperialists. We people from Europe must also fight. For the complicit imperialist states to stay out of this bloody war. We must try to familiarize the progressive parts of the population with the Rojava revolution in order to win their solidarity. All progressive parties, organizations and people must take their places on the streets to exert a great political pressure and to show Germany that we are against this war of its NATO partner and arms buyer.
Let us unite all resistances – Palestine, Congo or Kurdistan – and form a strong front. Our practical solidarity all over the world will also strengthen the people of democratic self-government in their resistance.